Canton Zurich will be short of around 83.000 workers by 2050, a new report from the local Office for Economic Affairs has revealed. A combination of retirements and a declining birth rate will mean that Switzerland’s largest region will increasingly have to look beyond its borders to fill jobs.
In the report, cantonal authorities announced that “profound demographic changes” are set to have a “major impact on Zurich’s economy and society.” For instance, they found that while children born in Switzerland today are expected to live 13 years longer than their grandparents, the number of children being born per woman has fallen from 2,7 in 1965 to 1,3 today, well below replacement rates.
At the same time, an increasing number of workers are expected to retire in the next few years - a federal government study from 2023 predicted that by the end of the decade, a quarter of the population will be retired. Pensioners will therefore be reliant on fewer and fewer people’s salaries when it comes to maintaining their pensions.
The report predicted that this labour market gap will continue to widen in Zurich in the coming years, peaking in 2029. By then, there will be 16 percent more retirees than 20-year-old residents in the canton. This will gradually improve in the 2030s before the current low birth rates kick in, pushing the metric back up to 18 percent by 2040.
The proportion of people of working age (20-64 years old) in the canton will drop from 63 percent in 2023 to 59 percent in 2050. This means that the region will need 83.000 more workers by the mid-century mark to maintain the current balance of retirees to working people.
The findings also show that “the population structure in the canton of Zurich is somewhat younger than in Switzerland as a whole” - for instance, the working population across the country is expected to drop to 55 percent by 2050. “It is the attractiveness of Zurich as a place to live, study and work that attracts a relatively young population from Switzerland and abroad," the study explained.
Interestingly, based on their models, officials said that while “immigration weakens the effect of ageing" on the economy, it "cannot prevent it." "In order to close the labour market gap and keep the ratio between the working population and the total population stable, immigration would need to be twice as high each year as the average of the last 10 years.”
However, the study also noted that the “challenges on the labour market would become significantly more severe without immigration.”
Speaking to reporters, cantonal Economics Director Carmen Walker Späh (FDP) said "even if the canton of Zurich is doing somewhat better than Switzerland as a whole, this should not disguise the fact that the challenges associated with demographic change are great.” She said that instead of higher migration rates, cantonal officials should focus on increasing productivity and making it easier for people to work more, though didn't specify how this would be achieved.
Most controversially, she concluded that “raising the retirement age could [also] counteract the effects of ageing on the economy in the coming decades."