A new analysis from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) has revealed which canton in Switzerland will age the most in the next 30 years. While pensioners will eventually account for more than a quarter of the whole population, in some regions, retirees will make up nearly a third of residents.
As part of its demographic forecast for 2055, the FSO predicted that the population of Switzerland will continue to grow. Thanks mostly to immigration - exclusively thanks to migration from 2035 - they predict that 10 million people will call the alpine nation home by 2041, rising to 10,5 million by 2055.
While the surge will see the number of workers in Switzerland increase by 12,5 percent to 5,8 million people by 2055, the next 30 years will also see a dramatic increase in the number of retirees. It’s predicted that people over the age of 65 will account for 26 percent of all residents by 2055.
By 2055, Ticino will have the largest share of old people in Switzerland, with 32,6 percent of the population being over 65 years old. The Italian-Swiss canton was followed by Graubünden and Schaffhausen in joint second (31,8 percent), with Obwalden (31,4 percent) and Nidwalden (31 percent) completing the higher echelons.
By contrast, Geneva is forecast to become the youngest canton in Switzerland, with just 20,7 percent of residents expected to be of retirement age in 2055. Zurich (22,1 percent), Vaud (22,7 percent) and Basel-Stadt (22,8 percent) are also set to remain relatively youthful.
Cantons Fribourg, Lucerne and Aargau will see the largest increase in the number of elderly, with the senior population rising by 60 percent in 30 years. The slowest rise in the number of elderly will be felt in Jura and Basel, at around 20 percent.
Speaking to Watson, demographic expert Philippe Wanner explained that the reason Ticino and Schaffhausen will sport more elderly people is that young people in these regions will choose to move to places with younger populations. "Cantons with the lowest percentages of seniors, such as Geneva and Zurich, attract young adults and repel retirees," he noted, adding that these centres are ideal for jobs and university education.
By contrast, "Retirees who came to urban areas to practice their profession tend to return to their home regions, where life is calmer and rents are more affordable," Wanner explained. Finally, he concluded that the youngest cantons are also the most popular with migrants from overseas, who are mostly young when they move to Switzerland.
Naturally, these figures have raised questions about whether there will be enough workers to support Swiss pensions and other social security benefits. For instance, the ratio of retirees to workers, vital in determining how healthy social programmes are, makes for alarming reading.
Even in the FSO’s “high scenario”, where a boom in both immigration and births sees the country eclipse the 10 million mark in 2033 and sport a population of over 11,6 million people in 2055, the number of employees paying for each retiree will go from 2,6 in 2024 to just two in 2055.
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