A new report from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) has revealed that the population of Switzerland is set to rise above the 10 million mark by 2050. All but two Swiss cantons are expected to see their populations rise in the next quarter century, driven primarily by immigration.
Following the news in September 2024 that Switzerland had reached a permanent resident population of over 9 million people, the FSO noted that it would not take long for the country to reach the next big milestone. Based on their average scenario, 10,4 million citizens and holders of residence permits will call the alpine nation home by 2050. The population will increase by a fifth compared to 2019, topping off what would then be over 195 years of population growth.
When the first census was conducted in 1850, the population of Switzerland sat at just 2,4 million people. This rose to 3 million in 1891, 4 million in 1926 and 5 million in 1955. The population started to rise rapidly from the 1950s onwards, growing to 6 million in 1967, 7 million in 1994, 8 million in 2012 and finally 9 million in June 2024.
All but two Swiss cantons will see their population rise in the next two and a half decades, with Aargau and Zug expected to see 32,74-percent increases each compared to 2019 levels. Canton Vaud is forecast to join Bern and Zurich in sporting over 1 million residents, while the latter’s population should near 2 million by the mid-century.
By contrast, Canton Ticino (-4,77 percent) and Graubünden (-3,49 percent) are expected to register population declines in the next 25 years. This has been blamed on the fact that both regions have older populations - Ticino for instance is one of the few places where, in 2023, the number of deaths was higher than the number of births.
However, the population growth across the rest of Switzerland will not come from an increase in births, with the number of children born in Switzerland having already dropped by 7,13 percent between 2019 and 2023. As a consequence, the government predicts that 90 percent of total population growth will be attributable to expats and internationals coming to the country to fill jobs and raise a family.
The findings come as the country continues to debate the No 10 Million Switzerland! Initiative from the Swiss People's Party (SVP), a referendum which if approved would require the government to place significant restrictions on migration, should the population rise above 9,5 million before 2050. How this would be achieved, given the free movement of people agreement between Switzerland and the EU, remains to be seen.
Those in favour of the idea argue that the country has failed to keep up with record population growth and now faces shortages and rising costs for renting a home. They also worry about the extra pressure placed on public services - though data suggests that internationals pay more into social security than they receive in benefits.
Others have argued that expats are required to prop up the Swiss economy, which already faces an acute shortage of workers. A recent report from officials in Canton Zurich found that, if the region keeps migration rates as they are and wants to maintain the economy and pension system, they will need to find over 80.000 extra employees over the next 25 years.
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