Number of schoolchildren to decline in Switzerland due to low birth rates

The Federal Statistical Office has announced that the number of primary schoolchildren in Switzerland is expected to decline from 2027. This will result in a drop in the demand for primary school teachers.

Fewer primary schoolchildren in Switzerland from 2027

The Federal Statistical Office (FSO) is expecting the number of schoolchildren and teachers in Switzerland to decline starting in 2027.

A 7 percent decline in schoolchildren, around 52.000 pupils, is predicted across the country by 2034. As a result, there will also be a 40 percent decline in the number of primary school teachers needed by 2034. 

However, the FSO predicts that by 2032 the gap between teacher supply and demand will “gradually narrow” across most parts of Switzerland, mainly because of declining numbers of primary schoolchildren. 

The Swiss school system is one of many sectors affected by a worker shortage today. With a declining number of teachers in training and more teachers retiring, Swiss cantons have started to employ more non-Swiss teachers in an attempt to plug shortages.

Officials in Bern have launched the Certification of Advanced Studies (CAS) qualification, which is designed to help employ teachers from abroad whose qualifications are not, or only partially, recognised by Swiss authorities. Other cantons have raised teacher salaries to try and attract more people to the profession. 

Falling birthrate behind decline in schoolchildren numbers

The predicted decline in the number of primary schoolchildren is due to a significant decline in birth rates across Switzerland, continues the FSO press release. In 2023, 80.024 babies were born in Switzerland, the lowest level in 20 years, and in 2024, the decline continued with 78.256 babies born.

The government recently predicted that Switzerland’s population will continue to grow in the coming years, reaching 10 million by 2041. However, the growth will mostly come from migration rather than births. 

The FSO predicts that the number of retired people living in Switzerland will rise from 20 to 25 percent of the population by 2055. Due to the declining birth rate, the number of workers paying for each retiree could go from 2,6 in 2024 to just two in 2055.

This means that Switzerland will have to look for other options to maintain its social security system, such as an increase in the retirement age or reforms to the pension system, or making it easier for people to migrate to, live and work in Switzerland.